Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Faces Downward Pressure Amid US Dollar Rebound

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By Daniel Alvarez

Gold prices feel the heat as US dollar strengthens
Thus, since December of 2024 gold prices are pulling back and more importantly, failing to hold above the $2,650 level chocked. This has exerted pressure on the metal as there emerged a sharp recovery in the dollar to an era of market events.

What is at the base of the recent slump, however, is geopolitical friction and changes in financial regulation. More so, the recent threat of tariffs on the BRICS from the US President Trump has added a new sense of volatility in the global markets. This has furthermore boosted the value of the US dollar, which normally investors prefer using especially in moments of volatility than gold. This has been impelling some analysts such as FXStreet to opine that the increase in dollar price in the US has proved to be a thorn in the side of physical gold as far as any noble surge is concerned.

Effect of Trump’s Tariff Threat to Gold

The market has reacted to Trump’s new threats of tariffs on BRICS nation by using the following strategies. These economic concerns have an influence over the feelings of investors and the USD is now the leading currency in forex and commodities markets. It showed that gold price is normally an inverse to strength in US dollar as investors opt for dollar denominated assets when dollar is strong.

Policymakers’ behavior in this context has, according to Economies.com and FXStreet analysts, put gold under a great deal of pressure. The gold price fell to key support levels as the market digests expansion of dollar, tensions over trade. As for gold investors, the nearer term looks to be less promising to gold whose price may even drop further in case the US dollar keeps soaring.

Current inflation and economic volatility challenges that Gold faces
Although weak data for the greenback remain the key reason for the downside moves in gold, other causes that explain the impairment are within economic turmoil. To this end, while global growth worries and rising inflation in the US have in the past lifted gold prices. Still,
however, the recent rally of the dollar has eased these inflationary factors which in turn have put pressure on gold’s poor performance.

DailyForex mentions that gold has not been able to stay much above the $ 2,650, which means that investors are getting wiser. Inflation has persisted in the US and as a result there has been an increase in interest rates which keeps negative pressure on the non yielding metal in comparison to other assets like US treasuries. This environment keeps gold exposed to more downside if the US Federal Reserve maintains its tightening policy.

Short-Term Outlook for Gold: Can it Recover?

But to present, analysts are not entirely pessimistic about gold in terms of the long run of the market. Some however, expect it to go up further should the value of the US dollar declines or should inflation factors rear their ugly heads again. Nonetheless, in the short-run, the company FXStreet points out that gold may at times find it difficult to scale up these higher price band.

At this stage, the interest persists on how the dollar fares with respect to other large currencies. Should the US Federal Reserve change its tune or should trade wars worsen then gold is likely to get back into its safe-haven mode. For now, however, gold is probably to carry on being under pressure as it stays below crucial barriers.

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