USD/INR Strengthens: There is always speculation about the future and the new restrictions planned by the government of each country to protect the domestic market on the one hand, and to establish higher tariffs on imports to increase the export revenue of their country on the other hand.
The forex pair USD/INR has been on the lips of many people as it steadily gains a stance among other currency pairs despite a highly charged world political system, and unpredictable forex market environment. On December 2, 2024, both currencies strengthened more after the ex- U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on the member countries of the BRICS nations affecting global currencies. The information contained in this article aims at helping its readers understand what may affect the USD/INR forex pair movement and what traders can anticipate in the following weeks.
Donald Trump’s tariff threats have accelerated the positive USD/INR move.
This focus on USD/INR was pulled to additional levels after Donald Trump threatened a 100% tariff on BRICS partners, including India. This announcement is part of more extensive trade policy, which is intended to shift the economic relations with emerging countries. The news caused the new fluctuation in the forex market which in turn made the dollar stronger against rupee.
It indicates some instability of worldwide trade because the holding of the BRICS countries could affect world economies. Industry critics postulate that this weakness is as a result of concern in export reliance as well as Indian ability to withstand such highly set tariffs. Thus, it would seem that the rupee has more room to come under pressure unless the domestic workhorse fundamentals prove more robust than suggested by recent events, especially as trade policies become increasingly rigid.
Domestic Drivers: India’s Growth and Inflation
However, geopolitical influences extend the pressure on the rupee, and India has a mixed indication of domestic economic information. On the one hand, there is an increased economic growth in India due to high performance of service and manufacturing sectors. Nonetheless, there are anxieties still lingering on inflation ambition.
Newer statistics revealed that India’s inflation rate has come down marginally but it is still quite close to the upper limit that the RBI has set for its inflation control programme. It provides another layer of challenge to the RBI as they work out their monetary policy with a consideration for growth on one side, and the necessity to address inflation.
The monetary policy of the central bank will go a long way for stabilizing the rupee. Hawkish actions from the RBI during future meetings may however support the rupee. On the other hand, any dovish monetary policy shift could put the rupee in the line of continued foreign threats including Trump tariff threats.
Technical Outlook: Is USD/INR Headed Higher?
Technically, this has happened to the USD/INR pair and it is now operating in a very sensitive area indeed. According to DailyForex, the pair touched the next level of resistance and, having overcome it, potentially opened a direction to higher levels. Pundits feel that once through 83.50, the rupee could go on to continue reporting more higher hourly tops in December.
RSI, oscillators of the short term and other indicators point to the fact that USD/INR has reached nearly overbought levels. This might be followed by some sort of a consolidation or even a slight withdrawal. But if geopolitical risks stay around, then the long-term is likely to remain one where the US dollar continues to strengthen against the rupee.